Riding the Storm
Out:
The Great Recession and Latino
Population Growth in North Carolina's
Micropolitan Areas
by
Ana-María González Wahl
Steven E. Gunkel
and
Saylor R. Breckenridge
Wake Forest University
Introduction
In the past two decades, micropolitan
areas have become key destinations for
Latino immigrants, who have increasingly
settled in small towns across the
Southeast and Midwest in particular
(Wahl, Breckenridge, and Gunkel 2007;
Kandel and Cromartie 2004; Kandel and
Parrado 2005). This
trend has been widely recognized as a
historic demographic shift (Kochhar,
Suro, and Tafoya 2005; Lichter
2012). For most of the 20th
century, Latino immigrants settled in
traditional gateway cities like Chicago,
Los Angeles and New York. While
major metropolitan areas such as these
remain home to most Hispanics, the
highest growth rates for this population
occurred in micropolitan areas in new
settlement states like North Carolina,
South Carolina and Georgia where few
Latinos lived two decades ago. In
many of these places, this population
increased nearly tenfold. Some
cite the lower cost of living, lower
crime rates and "quieter" life as the
key factors pulling newcomers to these
towns (Jordan 2012). Others emphasize
the economic opportunities created by
meatpacking, pork processing and food
processing industries that, among
others, have deliberately recruited
Latino immigrants (Kandel and Cromartie
2004). So significant is
geographic dispersion of Hispanics to
micropolitan areas that scholars
increasingly use the phrase "Latino
diaspora" to capture this shift from
city to country (Jordan
2012).
Micropolitan areas in North Carolina are
among those that registered the highest
rates of Latino population growth in the
last decades of the 20th century (Wahl
2007; Wahl, Breckenridge, and Gunkel
2007; Rendall, Brownell, and Kups
2011). On average, the Hispanic
population grew by more than five times
the national rate. Lumberton,
which witnessed one of the largest
increases, is typical in many ways of
these localities. In 1990, the
census reported a total population of
766 Hispanics. By 2000, the Latino
population numbered 5994.
Fueled by this growth in small towns,
North Carolina became that state which
reported the largest increase in the
Latino population during this
period. In part, the
employment of Latinos in food processing
and other low wage jobs accounted for
these record rates of economic
growth. Latino newcomers to the
Lumberton area, for example, were
deliberately recruited by Smithfield
Packing to work in its pork processing
plant, opened in 1992 (LeDuff
2001). In other micropolitan
areas, Tyson Foods, among other chicken
processing companies, have turned to
Latino workers to fill positions (Stull,
Broadway, and Griffith 1995). In
still other micropolitan areas, Latino
workers were recruited to meet the
demand for labor in construction,
tourism and agriculture (Kochhar, Suro,
and Tafoya 2005).
In this paper, we examine the impact of
the Great Recession on Latino population
trends in micropolitan areas.
North Carolina was among those states
that were hardest hit by the most recent
recession (Gitterman, Coclanis, and
Quinterno 2012; Freyer 2012).
Across the state, thousands of men and
women lost their jobs with the collapse
of the housing market and, in turn, the
financial sector and
manufacturing. At the national
level, Latinos were, according to many
experts, top casualties of this crisis
given their concentration in
construction and manufacturing
(Tavernise 2011; Hugo Lopez and Velasco
2011). Job losses in these sectors
and the ripple effects have been cited
as a key factor in the dramatic decline
of the Latino growth rate this past
decade – and the reversal seen in some
cities (Lee and Trounson 2012; Parrado
2012; Singer and Wilson 2010). In
addition, rising unemployment among
Latinos contributed to rising poverty
rates. The impact of this
recession in micropolitan areas remains
unclear. Have Latinos in these
towns that once offered them important
economic opportunities weathered the
storm unleashed by the most recent
recession? Have growth rates
flattened out with rising
unemployment? Have poverty rates
increased to hit the American
economy. This analysis
tracks these consequences of the Great
Recession for the economy and, in turn,
Latino population trends across
micropolitan areas in North
Carolina.
The Great Recession and the Toll on
Latinos: An Overview
By all accounts, the downturn that hit
the American economy in late 2007
ushered in the worst recession of the
post-war era (Grusky, Western, and Wimer
2011). Scholars typically trace
this recession to the collapse of a
housing bubble financed with subprime
mortgages that had provided a precarious
foundation for a housing market boom
that peaked in 2006 (Grusky, Western,
and Wimer 2011). As the bubble
burst, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and
several other leading financial
institutions declared bankruptcy and the
financial sector was thrown into
chaos. This, in turn, triggered
enormous job losses across all key
sectors. Unemployment rose from 5%
on the eve of the recession to 10.4% at
its peak in 2010. In 2008 and
2009, 8.4 million jobs, or 6.1% of all
payroll employment, disappeared in the
United States. Job losses on this
scale had not been seen since the Great
Depression. Manufacturing
and construction were particularly hard
hit (Hout, Levanon, and Cumberworth
2011).
Across the nation, Americans suffered
multiple hardships as a consequence of
this economic crisis. Most
immediately, the rising number of
foreclosures left millions without
secure housing. Median
household income adjusted for inflation
fell to $49,445 in 2010, a decline of 7%
from a peak of $53,252 in 1999
(Tavernise 2011). By 2010, poverty
rates had hit 15.1%, a high not seen in
nearly two decades. Among
children, the rate rose to 21.5%.
For many, these hardships threatened to
persist longer than in previous
recessions as unemployment became more
entrenched. By 2010, over 40% of
the unemployed had been searching for
work for more than six months (Grusky,
Western, and Wimer 2011).
Most studies that examine the impact of
this recession on Latinos offer national
level generalizations or focus on
metropolitan areas. At the
national level, news accounts along with
more systematic scholarly studies report
that the Hispanic population has been
among the hardest hit by the recession
(U.S. Congress' Joint Economic Committee
2010). Unemployment rates among
Hispanics have long been higher than the
overall unemployment rate.
On the eve of the recession, this
disparity had fallen to a historic low,
as unemployment rates dropped to 4.9%
among Latinos while standing at 4.6%
overall in May 2006 (U.S. Congress'
Joint Economic Committee 2010).
The gains made by Latino workers were
decimated with the Great
Recession. Unemployment
levels among Hispanics reached double
digits, climbing to 13.1% by October
2009. Among Hispanic men, the rate
rose even higher to 13.8%. More
than 2.9 million Hispanics - or 12.6% -
remained involuntarily unemployed in
March 2010, though the recession had
officially ended (Grusky, Western, and
Wimer 2011).
In large part, the disparate impact of
the recession on Latinos reflects their
concentration in those industries that
suffered the greatest job losses – as
well as the geographic concentration of
this population (U.S. Congress' Joint
Economic Committee 2010).
First and foremost, the collapse of the
housing market and, in turn, the
construction industry dealt Latinos, in
particular, a devastating blow. The
housing boom leading up to the recession
largely accounted for the economic gains
made by Latino workers to that
point. By 2007, nearly 15 % of all
Hispanic workers were employed in
construction compared to 8.1% of all
workers (U.S. Congress' Joint Economic
Committee 2010). When the housing
bubble burst, this sector contracted by
19.8%, shedding 1.5 million jobs and
displacing thousands of Latino workers
(Hadi 2011). Hispanic
workers were also overrepresented in two
other sectors hard hit by the
recession: leisure and hospitality
and manufacturing. In 2007, 11.6%
of Hispanic workers were employed in
manufacturing while 11.8% were employed
in the leisure and hospitality
sector. The geographic
concentration of Latinos further
exacerbated the negative impact of the
recession. Four states in which
Latinos are most overrepresented –
Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and California
– were among the hardest hit by the
collapse of the housing market,
suffering record drops in housing
prices, rising foreclosure rates as well
as unemployment rates (Grusky, Western,
and Wimer 2011).
The recession's toll on Latinos is
perhaps most clearly captured in rising
poverty rates. Among Latino
children, in particular, poverty became
more pervasive (Hugo Lopez and Velasco
2011). In 2007, 28.6% of all
Latino children were living in
poverty. By 2010, this figure had
increased to 35%. Children of
Latino immigrants faced even more dire
circumstances, as the poverty rate
reached 40.2% for this
group. More telling, Latinos
for the first time accounted for a
higher share of poor children than any
other racial and ethnic group. The
6.1 million Latino children living in
poverty constituted 37.3% of all poor
children (Hugo Lopez and Velasco
2011).
The impact of the recession on Latino
population trends has been more
difficult to dissect. Scholars
have reported mixed findings regarding
the consequences for Latino immigration
and, in turn, population growth (Parrado
2012; Camarota and Jensenius 2009;
Passel and Cohn 2009; Rendall, Brownell,
and Kups 2011). Most studies,
focusing on immigration from Mexico,
agree that the number of foreign born
Latinos arriving into the United States
fell significantly with the recession
(Camarota and Jensenius 2009; Passel and
Cohn 2009). Some also claim that
the recession triggered a dramatic
increase in return migration (Camarota
and Jensenius 2009). In
contrast, other scholars contend that
return migration to Mexico, in
particular, declined significantly with
the recession (Rendall, Brownell, and
Kups 2011). Overall, the impact on
Latino population growth reflected a
clear departure from the rapid growth
registered during the last decade of the
20th century. Between 1990 and
2000, the Latino population grew
nationally by 57.9%, increasing from
22.4 million to 35.3 million (Guzman
2011). The foreign born Latino
population grew even more dramatically,
more than doubling from 7.84 million to
just over 16 million. From 2000 to
2007, the Latino population continued to
grow, though less dramatically,
increasing by 10.2 million - or 29% (Fry
2008). With the recession,
significant declines among some Latino
populations were widely heralded as a
historic reversal. This included
the decline in the number of
unauthorized immigrants, most from Latin
America, from a peak of 12.2 million in
2007 to 11.3 million in 2009 (Pew
Research Center 2013). Similarly,
the decline of the Mexican-foreign born
population by 200,000 was widely
regarded as significant (Parrado 2012;
Passel and Cohn 2009).
Despite these declines, the Latino
population grew to 50.5 million by 2010,
a 43% increase since 2000 (Ennis,
Rios-Vargas, and Albert 2011).
Importantly, however, this growth was
fueled by native born Latinos more so
than Hispanic immigrants as it had been
in previous decades (Krogstad and Hugo
Lopez 2014).
Studies that examine more carefully the
impact of the recession on Latinos
across metropolitan areas find
significant variation (Parrado
2012). Between 2000 and 2010, the
Latino population grew considerably in
many cities, as both the foreign born
and native born weathered job losses and
other hardships tied to the
recession. However, growth
rates were slowed considerably by rising
unemployment, "flattening out" in some
cities and plummeting in others (Lee and
Trounson 2012). In a study of 161
metropolitan areas, Parrado (2012)
focuses more squarely on the links
between economic conditions and Hispanic
immigrant population trends during the
recession years. More
specifically, he finds that the foreign
born Mexican male population of prime
working age declined in most of these
metros from 2007 to 2009. These
declines were most dramatic in Los
Angeles, but also occurred in urban
centers like Dallas, Phoenix, Chicago,
and Denver where the Latino population
has long settled. In large part,
these population trends were tied to
variation in the local economies and the
incorporation of the Hispanic population
into these economies. Not
surprisingly, the loss of jobs in
construction – that industry hardest hit
by the recession – emerges as a key
predictor of declines in the Mexican
immigrant male population, given the
concentration of Latinos in this sector.
At the national level, the impact of
this recession on Latinos in some ways
reveals the long standing vulnerability
of this population to the ups and downs
of the economy. According to
some scholars (Suro and Lowell 2002),
Latinos were among the top victims of
the recession that unfolded in 2001,
finding themselves in "the wrong place
at the wrong time" just as they have in
this most recent recession.
Together, three industries accounted for
50% of all Hispanic unemployment:
manufacturing, construction and retail
trades. Despite these job losses,
the Latino population continued to grow
significantly. Rather than
return home, most studies find that most
migrants have remained in the United
States during previous recessions
(Portes 1985; Massey, Durand, and Malone
2002; Riosmena 2004). In part,
this reflects the fact that the costs of
returning home are typically
prohibitive. As importantly,
Latino migrants who live in communities
where their families and other Latinos
have become established are reluctant to
relocate and lose these ties.
The impact of the recession on Latinos
in micropolitan areas remains
unclear. Are Latino
population trends in these areas more
"recession proof" than in metropolitan
areas and across the nation, more
generally? North Carolina provides
an important terrain for tracking the
impact of the recession on the Latino
population in these localities, given
both the scale of job losses across the
state and its significance as a new
Latino destination. North Carolina
ranks among those states hardest hit by
the Great Recession. On the eve of
this economic crisis, the state's
unemployment rate was 5%, matching the
national unemployment rate (Gitterman,
Coclanis, and Quinterno 2012). As
the recession battered the labor market,
unemployment soared to 11.4% by 2010,
even as economists and political leaders
claimed the downturn had ended at the
national level. North
Carolina's average annual unemployment
rate ranked among the top ten highest in
2009 and 2010 (U.S. Department of Labor
2015). Job losses occurred on a
scale seen in few other states, despite
the fact that economists had predicted
these would not be as devastating since
the housing market had not been as
volatile as in California, Nevada and
Florida. However, the economic
toll in North Carolina proved
extraordinary largely given the
repercussions for manufacturing, on
which the state depended heavily.
In 2007, manufacturing accounted for
nearly 22% of the state's economy,
compared to 13% at the national level
(Gitterman, Coclanis, and Quinterno
2012); it accounted for 12% of
employment. This sector, which was
decimated across the nation, accounted
for the greatest share of job losses in
North Carolina (Freyer 2012).
Along with manufacturing, the
construction industry, that sector hit
hardest by the recession, suffered the
greatest contraction. Job losses,
however, we far reaching, affecting all
sectors and demographic groups.
Despite the pervasiveness of its
effects, the toll for Hispanic workers
was particularly steep. As at the
national level, rising poverty rates
highlighted the most serious economic
hardships facing individuals and
families as a result of large scale
unemployment. Poverty rates
increased from 13.9% to 17.5% across
North Carolina from 2006 to 2010.
Child poverty rates reached 25% by 2010
(Gitterman, Coclanis, and Quinterno
2012). For Hispanics, the toll of
the recession was even greater. At
its peak, the unemployment rate among
Latinos in the state reached 13.6%,
rising from 5.7% in 2007. Based on
the American Community Survey returns
from 2007 through 2011, the U.S. Census
reported that the poverty rate for
Hispanics stood at 31.5% in North
Carolina; in only 7 other states did
this rate cross the 30% mark during this
period (Macartney, Bishaw, and Fontenot
2013).
This paper examines the fate of Latinos
in the 23 micropolitan areas scattered
across North Carolina. We
distinguish two broad categories within
this interesting mix of
localities. On the one hand, we
identify 17 micropolitan areas which
depended heavily on manufacturing until
recently. We define these as
localities in which manufacturing
accounted for 20% or more of all payroll
jobs in 2000. This
heavy dependence on manufacturing
reflects the centrality of rural
industrialization to the economic
history of North Carolina, in general,
and most micropolitan areas, more
specifically. On the other
hand, the six remaining micropolitan
areas depend on a mix of tourism as well
as other service based
industries. We examine the
impact of the recession across these two
sets of localities guided by two key
questions. First, which set of
micropolitan areas was most negatively
impacted by the recession? Were
those micropolitan areas least dependent
on manufacturing spared the heavy toll
that the recession imposed on the
nation, given the losses in this
sector? Second, did the
Latino population in these areas
"weather the storm" and continue to grow
in number, despite the recession?
Or have those micropolitan areas hardest
hit by the recession witnessed a
flattening out or significant declines
in the Latino population as was reported
at the national level as well as in most
metropolitan areas?
Data
and Methods
Our analysis depends on U.S. Census data
for twenty three localities in North
Carolina that have been defined as
micropolitan areas as of February,
2013. A micropolitan area,
as delineated by the Office of
Management and Budget, contains an urban
core with a population of at least
10,000 but less than 50,000. Each
micropolitan area includes the county in
which the urban core is located as well
as any adjacent county with a "high
degree of social and economic
integration". In North Carolina,
three micropolitan areas include more
than one county. These are:
Roanoke Rapids, Elizabeth City and Kill
Devil Hills. All others include
only one county.
We
use three sources of data to track the
most recent recession and population
trends in these areas. First, we
use data provided by the decennial
censuses of 2000 and 2010 to track
Latino population trends. The
decennial census provides the most
accurate count of the Latino population
during this decade. (1) Second,
we use two data sources to construct
economic profiles of these micropolitan
areas and track employment trends.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides
data on unemployment rates by county and
state. Second, the Census Bureau
County Business Patterns program
provides the data needed to track job
losses and gains by county and industry
sector. We track these trends from
2007 to 2010, in particular.
At the national level, the recession was
officially defined as beginning in
December 2007 and ending in June 2009
(National Bureau of Economic Research
2015). However, the recession
persisted through 2010 in North
Carolina. We focus on
four sectors during this period:
manufacturing, construction,
accommodation and food services, and
retail trade. Tracking employment
in these sectors provides a useful
overview of the impact of the recession
on the economies of micropolitan areas
given that together these sectors
account for a significant share of jobs
in these localities. Further, we
expect that the Latino population will
be particularly vulnerable to losses
sustained in at least three of these
sectors - manufacturing, construction,
and accommodation and food services –
given its concentration in these
industries.
Results
Recession
and Unemployment in North Carolina's
Micropolitan Areas
North
Carolina's micropolitan areas were hard
hit by the Great Recession. Click here to
see Table 1, a .pdf file. In
fact, the average annual unemployment
rate across these localities stood at
12.0% in 2010, higher than the 9.6% rate
reported nationally. The mean
unemployment rate for micropolitan areas
also exceeded slightly the rate
registered in metropolitan counties
(11.0%) across North Carolina, as well
as the statewide jobless rate
(10.9%). In two micropolitan
areas, Laurinburg and Forest City, the
unemployment rates reached record highs
for the state, standing at 17% and 16.6%
respectively. Fully 8 (40.0%) of
the 20 counties reporting the highest
unemployment rates across the state were
micropolitan counties.
In
part, the pervasiveness of unemployment
across many micropolitan areas in the
midst of the recession reflected the
persistence of economic problems that
had unfolded in the preceding
decade. On the eve of this most
recent recession, the average
unemployment rate in micropolitan
counties stood at 5.4%, exceeding the
rates reported for metropolitan areas
(4.8%), the state (4.7%) and the nation
(5.0%). In general, unemployment
rates were highest in those micropolitan
areas that had depended most heavily on
manufacturing, given the consequences of
deindustrialization. In
particular, the textile, furniture and
tobacco industries, long a mainstay of
manufacturing in these localities,
suffered a wave of plant closings that
displaced thousands of workers in places
like Lumberton, Sanford, and Mount Airy
(Hossfeld and Legerton 2004; Wahl
2007). In these
manufacturing dependent micropolitan
areas, this sector had accounted for
more than 20% of all employment in
2000. In several of these
localities, the share of jobs accounted
for by manufacturing reached more than
40%. By 2007, manufacturing
accounted for only 23.3%, on average, of
all jobs in these places.
Unemployment, in turn, stood at
5.9%. In other micropolitan areas,
unemployment rates were significantly
lower, reaching only 4.5% in
2007. In general, these
localities largely depended on tourism,
including places like Boone, Pinehurst
and Kill Devil Hills.
The recession dealt substantial job
losses to all these micropolitan areas
but the dynamics of this downturn
differed in significant ways. Click here to see Table 2, a pdf file
Overall, the downturn was
similarly serious in scale across both
manufacturing and non-manufacturing
based localities. On average,
manufacturing dependent micropolitan
areas lost 2068 jobs from 2007 to
2010. This represented a mean
decline in employment of
10.6%. In other
micropolitan areas, employment declined
by 10.9%, or 1813 jobs, on
average. Job losses by
sector, however, differed significantly
across these two sets of
localities. In those that depended
most heavily on manufacturing, this
sector lost 951 jobs on average,
exacerbating the displacement that
earlier waves of plant closings had
caused. More telling
perhaps, these losses accounted for
46.6% of all jobs lost in these
areas. In most (9 of 17) of
these areas, manufacturing accounted for
more than half of all job losses.
In contrast, the decline in
manufacturing jobs across the state and
nation, though significant, accounted
for a smaller share of jobs lost.
Across North Carolina, 33.8% of all jobs
lost were manufacturing jobs.
Across the nation, this figure stood at
28.5%. In manufacturing dependent
micropolitan areas, the losses sustained
in this sector, as evident across the
state and nation, were coupled with
employment declines in other sectors,
including construction and
accommodations and food services.
Interestingly, the retail trade sector
generated jobs in all but two of these
localities.
In other micropolitan areas, a different
pattern emerges. Manufacturing
registers losses which are not
insignificant but other sectors account
for a larger share of the decline in
employment. Construction, in
particular, was hit hard in these
localities, losing 570 jobs, on average,
and accounting for fully 31% of all job
losses. This figure was
significantly higher than that reported
at the state and national levels, where
the loss of construction jobs accounted
for 20.7% and 21.8% of all jobs lost,
respectively. At the same time,
modest growth occurred in the
accommodations and food services as well
as the retail trade sector.
Latino Population Growth despite Job
Losses
Given the job losses registered in
micropolitan areas, the growth of the
Latino population, not surprisingly,
slowed in these localities as it did
across the nation. More
specifically, the Latino growth rate in
most micropolitan areas (17 of 23)
dropped considerably during the first
decade of the 21st century. Click here to
see Table 3, a pdf file. Without
exception, however, the Latino
population increased substantially in
every one of these areas, despite the
economic crisis. On average, this
population increased by
123%. In the majority of
these localities, the population more
than doubled. In contrast,
the Latino population in metropolitan
areas across North Carolina registered a
less dramatic increase of 106%, on
average. Further, the increase in
micropolitan areas was nearly three
times the increase of 43% reported
across the nation as well as higher than
the 111% growth rate for the state.
More telling perhaps are the figures
that compare the growth of the Latino
population to trends in the non-Hispanic
population. We can distinguish
four typologies that emerge in this
comparison. First, we find
that in 10 micropolitan areas both the
non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic
black population grew alongside the
Latino population.
Importantly, this population wide growth
is evident in all but one of the
non-manufacturing based micropolitan
areas (i.e. Morehead City).
However, the rate of growth was
significantly lower for these two groups
in every one of these localities.
To further clarify, we report a ratio
that summarizes the extent to which
Latino population growth outstrips the
growth of the non-Hispanic white and
non-Hispanic black
populations. On average, the
Latino population grew at a rate that
was 15 times the rate of growth
registered for non-Hispanic whites and
27 times the rate of growth reported for
non-Hispanic blacks.
The significance of Latino population
growth is perhaps most clear in those
micropolitan areas where non-Hispanic
whites and/or non-Hispanic blacks
declined in number. More than half
of these localities reported declines of
this sort. In four micropolitan
areas, both the non-Hispanic white and
non-Hispanic black population declined
while the Latino population grew. This
includes Roanoke Rapids, Kinston,
Rockingham and Mount Airy. The
exodus of both whites and blacks
resulted in a decline in the total
population in Kinston and Roanoke
Rapids.
In
another four areas, the non-Hispanic
white population declined but the
non-Hispanic black population grew
slightly. More specifically, the
Latino population grew, on average, at a
rate 31 times the growth rate for
African Americans. Finally, Latino
population growth occurred in the
context of black population declines but
non-Hispanic white growth in another
five areas. In these
localities, the Hispanic rate of growth
was, on average, 21 times the rate of
growth evident among non-Hispanic
whites.
Given these trends, the racial/ethnic
landscape of these micropolitan areas
has been further transformed in ways not
fully anticipated a decade ago.
Most importantly, the Latino share of
the total population continued to
increase despite the
recession. In 2000,
Hispanics accounted for only 3.2% of the
total population in these localities
after a decade during which they became
newly defined Latino destinations.
By 2010, that figure had doubled, rising
to 6.1%, on average. In one
case, the increase in the Latino
population though slight, when coupled
with an increase in the African American
population, has made this a
majority-minority locality (i.e.
Laurinburg). Taken together, these
results suggest that Latino population
trends were more recession proof than
either the non-Hispanic white or
non-Hispanic black population.
Conclusion
In
the 1990s, the dramatic growth of the
Latino population in the smaller towns
of North Carolina and other new
settlement states was widely heralded as
a historic shift from city to country
for the foreign born, in
particular. The expansion of
industries that actively recruited
Latinos to provide low wage labor, in
large part, fueled these record high
rates of growth. In addition, the
lower cost of living, lower crime rates,
and other advantages that presumbably
defined small town life further pulled
new immigrants to these
localities.
With
the most recent recession, Latino
population growth slowed considerably at
the national level as well as in most
metropolitan areas.
Scholars, focusing on large urban areas,
have largely failed to examine the
consequences of this recession for
micropolitan areas. This analysis
reveals that the trajectory of Latino
population trends in micropolitan areas
differs in significant ways,
notwithstanding some important
similarities. First, the Latino
population did increase at slower rates
in these localities as they did in
metropolitan areas and nationally;
however, the growth rate in the former
was nearly three times higher than the
growth rate reported for the
nation. Further, the Latino
population growth rate exceeded the
growth rate for the non-Hispanic black
and non-Hispanic white population by a
far greater margin. These
population trends have further
established Latinos as a key group in
the racial/ethnic landscape of these
localities where only two decades ago
few Hispanics resided. The
implications of this growth are perhaps
most significant in the four localities
where both the non-Hispanic white and
non-Hispanic black population have
declined.
Latino population growth in these
micropolitan areas is particularly
exceptional given several factors that
could have pushed many to leave these
localities. First, the scale of
job losses in micropolitan areas
exceeded the scale of job losses
reported across the state and the
nation. Importantly, the decline
in employment in most micropolitan areas
was substantial in the years leading up
to this most recent recession.
Most of these localities were heavily
dependent on manufacturing, testament to
the centrality of rural
industrialization in North
Carolina. The wave of plant
closings in textiles, furniture and
other manufacturing industries left many
of these places with unemployment rates
that were higher than those reported for
the state and the nation on the eve of
the recession. The more recent
economic downturn further stripped these
localities of employment in these as
well as other sectors. Perhaps
most telling, micropolitan areas
accounted for nearly half (8) of the 20
counties with the highest unemployment
rates in the state.
Second, the sectors hit hardest by the
recession were those in which Latinos
have been most concentrated across the
nation. In previous research,
scholars have connected this
concentration to the heavier toll facing
Latinos in earlier
recessions. Specifically,
manufacturing and construction, the
sectors hit hardest by the recession in
micropolitan areas, are the two key
sectors in which Latinos have been
typically overrepresented. The
loss of construction jobs may have
imposed a particularly heavy toll on
Latinos in those micropolitan areas
which have become highly dependent on
tourism. On the eve of the
recession, the lower unemployment rates
in these localities reflected the
economic boom that the expansion of
tourism and, in turn, construction
brought these resort towns. As
this boom, however, turned to bust, the
recession revealed the harsh reality
that none of the micropolitan areas
which had become new Latino destinations
provided secure employment opportunities
for this population.
Given these job losses, why did Latinos
remain in North Carolina's micropolitan
areas? Previous research suggests
a number of factors that may have
encouraged newcomers to these localities
to wait out the most recent economic
crisis. First, Latinos have likely
become established in multiple
ways. Many had children who were
enrolled in schools and recognized that
uprooting families is a costly
endeavor. In addition, Latinos in
these communities have established
social networks with co-ethnics who can
provide several forms of support that
allow them to negotiate the hardships
that the recession imposed.
Further, the network of services for
Latinos – and the foreign-born
population – has likely grown as
churches, other non-profits and
government agencies respond to the needs
of this population. The advantages
of "small town life" likely also were
weighed alongside these factors.
In general, immigrants faced with
recessions in the past have often
remained where they are based on a
careful calculus that weighs the costs
and benefits of relocating. In
short, moving incurs costs that are
outweighed by the perceived benefits of
remaining in anticipation of an economic
recovery. Future research will
need to further unpack the puzzle that
Latino population growth despite the
recession represents.
Footnote
(1)
The American
Community Survey provides
population data for 2007
through 2010 which would
theoretically allow us to
focus on the most immediate
impacts of the recession but
the margin of error is much
larger and thus the population
counts are not as accurate.
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The Editorial Board of Sociation
Today
Editorial Board:
Editor:
George H. Conklin,
North Carolina
Central University
Emeritus
Robert Wortham,
Associate Editor,
North Carolina
Central University
Board:
Rebecca Adams,
UNC-Greensboro
Bob Davis,
North Carolina
Agricultural and
Technical State
University
Catherine Harris,
Wake Forest
University
Ella Keller,
Fayetteville
State University
Ken Land,
Duke University
Steve McNamee,
UNC-Wilmington
Miles Simpson,
North Carolina
Central University
William Smith,
N.C. State University
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